Back in late 2020, just after the lockdowns ended, my friend Lena sold her two-bedroom home in Austin. The moment she listed it on Redfin, she was flooded with offers—seven within 48 hours, two of which were well over her asking price. She was stunned, maybe even a bit regretful for not aiming higher. But that was the market back then: a relentless, feverish auction where buyers would outbid each other without hesitation, desperate to secure any property they could.
Fast forward three years, and I brought up that memory in a recent chat with her. What’s changed? Well, according to a new report by Redfin, quite a lot. While U.S. home prices just hit a record median of $396,500, sellers are walking away with a growing sense of disappointment. Why? Because their asking prices are nearly $26,000 higher than what buyers are willing to pay. That’s a sharp contrast to 2021 and 2022, when homes routinely sold above asking price.
Kelly, a Redfin Premier agent I know in Tulsa, put it plainly: “I’m having to explain to sellers more and more that pricing needs to be strategic. If your home is even slightly overpriced, buyers won’t bite. They’ll wait, negotiate, or simply move on.” She’s not wrong. Overpricing today can mean your listing sits for weeks, eventually forcing a discount just to get offers.
Behind the scenes, a subtle but powerful shift is underway. Redfin’s data shows that there are now about 500,000 more listings than active buyers—a market condition that theoretically favors buyers. Imagine walking into a coffee shop where there are more baristas than customers. Suddenly, the price of a cappuccino doesn’t seem so non-negotiable anymore.
And yet, prices keep climbing. The National Association of Realtors reports even higher median resale prices—$414,000—suggesting the market still has legs. But here's the nuance: not all inventory is created equal. Yes, more homes are hitting the market, but total supply is still below pre-pandemic norms. Combine that with high mortgage rates, and what you get is a very selective buyer pool that isn’t as eager to jump.
One of my MBA students put it best: “Buying a home right now feels like searching for water in the desert. You see a lush oasis in the distance, but when you get there, it’s a seven-figure listing that’s way out of reach.”
So while sellers are holding tight to 2021-level optimism, buyers are approaching with caution—and the numbers back that up. Redfin reports just a 1% rise in sale prices over the past four weeks, compared to 5% growth earlier this year. The momentum is slowing, even if the headline numbers haven’t cracked yet.
What this all signals is pretty clear: The housing market remains strong, but the frenzy is gone. Sellers need to recalibrate. Buyers might find patience pays off. And everyone, from agents to analysts, should be wary of assuming that yesterday’s rules still apply.
In real estate, the danger isn’t always in high prices—it’s in misreading the moment. You can overpay and still be fine if the timing is right. But if you wait too long on expectations that no longer fit today’s reality, the market won’t wait with you.
So whether you’re selling, buying, or just watching from the sidelines, know this: the music hasn’t stopped—but it’s playing a different tune now.